Türkiye’s Demographic Shift Signals Economic Challenges Ahead

Falling birth rates and rising life expectancy signal major economic challenges as Ankara prepares for a changing workforce

By Abdullahi Yusuf

Türkiye remains one of the world’s most populous nations, but new demographic figures suggest the country is entering a period of profound population change that could reshape its economy, workforce and social systems in the decades ahead.

The Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK), releasing new figures to mark World Population Day, said Türkiye’s population reached 86.1 million in 2025, making it the 18th most populous country globally.

The figure reflects Türkiye’s continued demographic importance, accounting for around one percent of the world’s population. But behind the headline number lies a deeper transformation: fewer children are being born, people are living longer, and the country is gradually moving towards an older population structure.

For a country that has long benefited from a relatively young population compared with much of Europe, the shift presents both opportunities and challenges.

According to United Nations mid-year population estimates for 2025, the global population is expected to reach 8.23 billion people.

India remains the world’s most populous country with almost 1.46 billion people, followed by China with 1.42 billion and the United States with 347.3 million. Together, the three nations account for nearly 40 percent of humanity.

Türkiye’s population of 86,092,168 places it ahead of many countries in demographic size, but its future trajectory is becoming increasingly defined by changing age patterns.

Children aged between zero and 17 make up 24.8 percent of Türkiye’s population, compared with the global average of 29.3 percent.

Although Türkiye’s proportion of children is below the worldwide figure, it remains higher than every European Union member state, highlighting the country’s continued demographic advantage compared with an increasingly ageing Europe.

A similar trend is seen among young adults.

People aged between 15 and 24 account for 14.8 percent of Türkiye’s population, slightly below the global average of 15.6 percent. However, the share remains higher than in all EU countries, maintaining Türkiye’s position as a relatively youthful society within its wider region.

The most significant warning sign in the latest figures is the continued decline in fertility. Türkiye’s fertility rate has fallen to 1.42 children per woman, significantly below the global average of 2.24.

The figure is also below the replacement level, the number of children needed per woman to maintain a stable population without relying on migration.

The decline mirrors a wider global trend affecting many middle- and high-income countries, where changing lifestyles, economic pressures and delayed family formation have contributed to lower birth rates.

But demographic experts warn that sustained low fertility can have long-term consequences.

A shrinking younger population can eventually reduce the number of people entering the workforce, placing greater pressure on pension systems, healthcare services and government spending.

For Türkiye, the challenge will be maintaining economic growth while adapting to a future where fewer workers may be supporting a larger elderly population.

At the same time that fewer children are being born, Türkiye’s citizens are living longer. Average life expectancy has continued to improve, with men expected to live 75.5 years and women 80.7 years.

Both figures are above global averages, where male life expectancy stands at 70.9 years and female life expectancy at 76.2 years.

The improvement reflects advances in healthcare, living standards and public health. But longer life expectancy is also accelerating demographic ageing. People aged 65 and above now account for 11.1 percent of Türkiye’s population, slightly higher than the global average of 10.4 percent.

While Türkiye remains considerably younger than European Union countries, the direction of change is clear: the country is gradually moving towards an older demographic profile.

The changing population structure is expected to influence almost every area of Türkiye’s future planning. A smaller working-age population could affect labour supply and productivity, while an ageing society may require increased spending on healthcare, pensions and social support.

Governments facing similar demographic shifts around the world have responded with measures aimed at increasing workforce participation, supporting families, encouraging higher birth rates and adapting pension systems.

For Türkiye, policymakers will face the challenge of preserving the economic benefits of its youthful population while preparing for the consequences of demographic ageing.

The country’s current population structure still provides a significant advantage compared with much of Europe. A large working-age population can support economic expansion, innovation and productivity.

But demographic trends develop over generations, meaning decisions made today will determine how effectively Türkiye manages the transition ahead.

The latest figures therefore present a mixed picture: a nation that remains young by European standards, but one already confronting the realities of a changing demographic future.

With additional information from MNTV

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